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Elder Pledge wins hands down. Let's see, it's 6x your production vs. 20 minutes worth of production for getting lucky every few minutes and fairly frequently 20*7 or 140 minutes worth of production. No contest. I sat with 10 wrinklers eating away at my cookie for an hour or so. I popped them all with an Elder Pledge and barely got as many cookies as I would have from get lucky with a big store of cookies.
Yes, but this is if you prefer active play. I leave my game open overnight, while I'm at school or when I'm doing other things. Only an hour, and no, the wrinklers don't do much. But if you don't play actively, you're not clicking on golden cookies, thus there's really no point to the elder pledge unless you plan to play actively for that 30-60 minutes. In which case, by all means, purchase it. But I've found passive play to be the best route, because after letting the wrinklers sit for 9+ hours I generally get a bonus of around 100 quadrillion.